Dynamics of Heteroscedasticity Modelling and Forecasting of Tax Revenue in a Developing Economy: A Review
Baba Gimba Alhassan1, Fadhilah Binti Yusof2, Siti Mariam Norrulashikin3, Ibrahim Lawal Kane4
1Baba Gimba Alhassan*, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia. And Department of Statistics, School of Applied and Natural Sciences Federal Polytechnic Bida (FPB) Niger State Nigeria.
2Fadhilah Binti Yusof, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
3Siti Mariam Norrulashikin Department of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
4Ibrahim Lawal Kane, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Umaru Musa Yar’adua University, Katsina State, Nigeria.
Manuscript received on November 03, 2020. | Revised Manuscript received on November 06, 2020. | Manuscript published on November 15, 2020. | PP: 34-41 | Volume-5 Issue-3, November 2020. | Retrieval Number: 100.1/ijmh.C1161115320 | DOI: 10.35940/ijmh.C1161.115320
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© The Authors. Published By: Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Tax revenue modelling and forecasting is very crucial for revenue collection and tax administration management. The dynamics of heteroscedasticity in the financial time series (tax revenue) in the domain of technique used to model and predict tax revenue in the emerging economy threw us to this investigation. The reviews are categorized into two the tax revenue and stock exchange index. Five factors were considered in this studies modelling, forecasting, linear model, nonlinear model and heteroscedasticity, it is on this note that we syntheses over 75 studies from the literature to consider the pattern of reporting tax revenue and stock market index. Thus, from the reviewed literature, we inferred that the pattern of reporting tax revenue data and the analytical techniques employed by most of these studies are responsible for the instability (volatility) in the financial time series forecasting. Also, results revealed that linear models are mostly applied to tax revenue data with fewer non-linear models, while combination and single non-linear models were mostly used for stock exchange data. Thus, we recommend the combination of linear and nonlinear models for both tax revenue and stock exchange data which can minimize the error of heteroscedasticity in the forecasting of tax revenue in a developing economy.
Keywords: Heteroscedasticity, Financial time series, Modelling, and forecasting.